The 96th Academy Awards are finally just two days away. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer has been at the center of awards season for several months now, and it seems like the main question heading into Sunday’s ceremony is just how big of a night will it have. Despite how inevitable Everything Everywhere All At Once‘s chances of success felt heading into last year’s show, Oppenheimer still feels like it has the potential to be the most dominant force we’ve seen at the Oscars in many years. Nolan’s film not only earned 13 total nominations after grossing nearly $1 billion at the global box office, it became the first film since Argo to win the top prize at every major guild and industry award show—Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and SAG. In other words, it is fair to assume it’s going to have a massive night.
In terms of the broadcast itself, it will be interesting to see how many people tune in on Sunday. In recent years, there has been a push for the Academy to recognize more popular films, with people theorizing that this will lead to increased ratings for the telecast. Given the success of Barbenheimer, and the fact that those two films garnered a total of 21 nominations between them, it will be interesting to see if that theory is proven to be true.
It does seem like there is a bit more collective excitement leading up to this year’s show than there has been in years past. Although a lot of people who follow awards season closely, like myself, may have grown somewhat tiresome of the same campaigns, conversations, and debates playing out in front of us on a daily basis for months now—it feels like the casual movie fan has been more tuned into this year’s races than normal. While most of that attention probably stems from the success of Barbie and Oppenheimer, other nominated films like Maestro, Past Lives, The Holdovers, and Poor Things were all fairly popular in their own right as well, and have probably helped to drive more people to this year’s awards.
I’m hoping for an entertaining telecast with strong ratings, but truthfully, I’ve come to accept that worrying about how many people tune into this show is not a worthwhile way to spend one’s time. All I know is I personally am excited for Sunday night, and look forward to whatever surprises may be in store. For now though, here are my predictions and picks for the 2024 Oscars.
Achievement In Sound:
- The Creator
- Maestro
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
My Prediction: Oppenheimer. My Pick: The Zone of Interest.
Let’s kick things off with the first of many categories in which Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner. There is no denying that the sound design in Nolan’s film is incredibly well done—as well as being a major contributing factor the success of many of its key scenes. Personally, I think The Zone of Interest should win here though. In my opinion, Jonathan Glazer’s film used sound as a tool to elicit feelings and reactions out of the audience better than any other movie from 2023. It is also the only film that has a chance to spoil Oppenheimer‘s win here.
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Golda
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
My Prediction: Maestro. My Pick: Poor Things.
Makeup and Hairstyling is a difficult category to feel certain about this year. The team behind Maestro, which is led by two time Oscar winner Kazu Hiro, definitely feel like the frontrunners though. Notably, this very well could end up being the only win Bradley Cooper’s film receives.
Achievement in Costume Design:
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
My Prediction: Poor Things. My Pick: Poor Things.
This the first of a couple categories this year that feel like a showdown between Barbie and Poor Things. Although the worlds of these two films look and feel very different, there seems to be a similar admiration from the Academy for how those world were built. I think Poor Things is going to get the best of Barbie when it comes to Costume Design though, a decision that I would agree with.
Achievement in Cinematography:
- Edward Lachman, El Conde
- Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Matthew Libatique, Maestro
- Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
- Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
My Prediction: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer. My Pick: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer.
Acclaimed cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema has never won an Academy Award before, but luckily for him, that feels destined to change on Sunday night. He is the clear favorite here for his work on Oppenheimer, which I feel is deserved. It will be quite the shock if any other nominee ends up triumphing in this category.
Achievement in Production Design:
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
My Prediction: Poor Things. My Pick: Barbie
Here we have another two horse race featuring Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things and Greta Gerwig’s Barbie. Despite having a greater fondness for the world building and set design displayed in Gerwig’s film, I think Poor Things has the edge here. This certainly is not a lock though. I could easily see Barbie winning this award, something which I will be rooting for despite my prediction.
Achievement in Film Editing:
- Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
- Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
- Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things
My Prediction: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer. My Pick: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this feels like another locked up win for Oppenheimer. It’s hard to deny the masterful work that Jennifer Lame contributed to this film. It really does not seem like anyone else has a chance here. In fact, depending on when this award takes place during the telecast, this could be when the Oppenheimer wave really starts to form on Sunday night.
Achievement in Visual Effects:
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
My Prediction: Godzilla Minus One. My Pick: Godzilla Minus One.
The visual effects category feels like a two film race between Godzilla Minus One and The Creator, with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 playing the role of an unlikely dark horse. There is an incredible amount of admiration and support for the team behind Godzilla Minus One in the film community, which is why I think it will be the winner here. This definitely has a chance to be one of the best feel-good moments of the night if it does end up winning. I’ll be rooting for it.
Best Original Song:
- “The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot
- “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
- “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for my People),” Killers of the Flower Moon
- “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie
My Prediction: “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie. My Pick: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie.
Billie Eilish and Finneas’ “What Was I Made For?” is the clear frontrunner in this category. But, if I were in charge of selecting the winner here, it would be the other nominee from Barbie winning this award. While “What Was I Made For?” is a great song in its own right, it’s impossible to deny that “I’m Just Ken” is a better, more important, and more impactful part of this wonderful film. Furthermore, I’m confident that it will remain relevant in our culture longer than “What Was I Made For?” will. Unfortunately, culturally staying power isn’t something the Academy is usually good at recognizing.
Best Original Score:
- Laura Karpman, American Fiction
- John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
- Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
My Prediction: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer. My Pick: Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon.
This very much feels like another win for Oppenheimer. While I prefer the work done by Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon, and think it would be a great moment if the Academy were to posthumously celebrate him here, it is hard to imagine anyone other than Ludwig Göransson winning this award. It’s difficult to be mad at that fact, because the score for Oppenheimer is a tremendous piece of art on its own.
Best Animated Feature:
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
My Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. My Pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Best Animated Feature has shaped up to be a very intriguing race between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. Currently, it feels like Spider-Verse is the favorite, but I would not be shocked if Hayao Miyazaki’s film ends up being the winner. Given how global the Academy has become in recent years, it is easy to imagine The Boy and the Heron garnering a lot of support from voters. However, Spider-Verse was one of the most acclaimed films of 2023, and its predecessor did win this award back in 2019. Personally, I’m partial towards Spider-Verse, but I would not be disappointed seeing either of these films get the nod from the Academy on Sunday night.
Best International Feature Film:
- IO Capitano
- Perfect Days
- Society of the Snow
- The Teachers’ Lounge
- The Zone of Interest
My Prediction: The Zone of Interest. My Pick: The Zone of Interest.
Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, which also earned a Best Picture nomination, feels like the strong frontrunner here. It would have been interesting to see how this category had played out if France submitted fellow Best Picture nominee, Anatomy of a Fall, for consideration. With that film not in its way though, I expect Glazer’s domestic holocaust drama to be awarded the win here.
Best Documentary Feature:
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
- 20 Days in Mariupol
My Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol. My Pick: 20 Days in Mariupol.
Although Best Documentary can sometimes be a difficult category to predict, 20 Days in Mariupol winning here feels like one of the biggest locks of the night. It would be incredibly shocking to see any other film win this award. The movie running in second place currently is probably Bobi Wine: The People’s President, but it feels like there is a very wide gap between first and second here.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
- Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Barbie
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Tony McNamara, Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
My Prediction: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction. My Pick: Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Barbie.
It is somewhat surprising just how much of a favorite Cord Jefferson has become in this category. American Fiction definitely seems to be one of the least disliked films of the year, which is obviously helping its chances in this category. But, the number of people who consider its win here to be a foregone conclusion in a category the features Oppenheimer and Barbie as nominees is still wild to me. If American Fiction is indeed running in first, then those two films are definitely in second and third at the moment. I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see any of the three of them win here, but I personally would love to see Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach be triumphant. Still, I won’t be upset if Jefferson is the ultimate recipient here. His screenplay for American Fiction was very impressive, especially considering that it was his debut feature.
Best Original Screenplay:
- Justine Triet & Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
- David Hemingson, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer, Maestro
- Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik, May December
- Celine Song, Past Lives
My Prediction: Justine Triet & Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall. My Pick: Celine Song, Past Lives.
I ranked Celine Song’s Past Lives as my number one film of 2023, and its script was a big reason why I ended up falling in love with it. Unfortunately, it seems like that script is going to go unrewarded in this category. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari have all the momentum right now. There is probably a slight chance that David Hemingson pulls off the upset for his work on The Holdovers. But as of now, this feels like Triet and Harari’s category. And while I personally prefer the work that Song did, I do think they would be worthy winners.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
My Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer. My Pick: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon.
Both the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories have felt locked up for almost the entirety of awards season. Assuredly, Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Oscar on Sunday night for his work in Oppenheimer. If I’m being honest though, I may prefer the other four performances nominated in this category to his. Downey Jr. certainly doesn’t give a bad performance in Oppenheimer, in fact, it is quite great. This just happens to be an extremely stacked category. I find Robert De Niro to be outstanding in Killers of the Flower Moon. Moreover, I think it would be really exciting to see the Academy reward performances like the ones given by Ryan Gosling, Sterling K. Brown, and Mark Ruffalo. Ultimately, this is Downey Jr.’s category.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- America Ferrera, Barbie
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
My Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers. My Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph somehow feels like more of a lock in this category than Downey Jr. does in Best Supporting Actor. In fact, this may be the biggest lock of the entire night. There’s really no one even worth mentioning as a potential upset here because it truly feels like Randolph has had this award won for months now. I was incredibly fond of her performance in The Holdovers, and will enjoy seeing her accept this award on Sunday night.
Best Actor:
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
My Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer. My Pick: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer.
There is slightly more intrigue in Best Actor than in the supporting acting categories, but Cillian Murphy still feels like heavy favorite here. Paul Giamatti could potentially pull off the surprise upset, seeing how he gave one of the best performances of his acclaimed career in The Holdovers. But, I think Murphy’s win here is just going to be another addition to Oppenheimer’s dominant night. I personally enjoy all five of the performances nominated—I certainly wish Jeffrey Wright had been more of a contender—but I do agree with the way I think the Academy is going to go. Murphy was truly incredible in Oppenheimer. It felt like his performance held that entire film together in a really impressive way. It will be exciting to see him accept his first Oscar.
Best Actress:
- Annette Bening, Nyad
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
My Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon. My Pick: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon.
This is certainly the acting category with the most potential for surprise. It has long been considered a race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. However, some people think Sandra Hüller is gaining a little bit of late momentum. It definitely feels like Gladstone is the favorite, and will be the eventual winner, but I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see Stone or Hüller pull off the upset. There is a lot of admiration for Gladstone’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon, but there seems to be a lot of support for Anatomy of a Fall within the Academy as well. And of course, given that she is a winner and a four time nominee, we already know that the Academy loves Stone. I could see some voters thinking that Stone’s performance had the higher degree of difficulty, but personally, I am more of a fan of the work done by Gladstone. This has the potential to be one of the most exciting moments of the night regardless of what happens, but especially if she is selected as the winner.
Best Director:
- Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
My Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer. My Pick: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon.
Many people think Christopher Nolan’s Best Director Oscar win is long overdue and, fortunately for them, they won’t have to wait much longer to see it happen. Even though Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture as well, a case could be made that Nolan’s potential win here is actually more of a lock than his film winning the final award of the night. Perhaps Jonathan Glazer could pull off the upset but that is so unlikely that it’s almost not even worth mentioning. It has been clear for the past couple of months that this truly is Nolan’s moment, and the Academy is ready to recognize that.
Best Picture:
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
My Prediction: Oppenheimer. My Pick: Past Lives.
Yup, it’s going to be Oppenheimer‘s night. It would be nice if there was a little more intrigue in the biggest category heading into Sunday night, but unfortunately this just feels like a foregone conclusion. I will be glad to see Oppenheimer win though, even if I was a bigger fan of both Past Lives and Killers of the Flower Moon. Something about Nolan’s film winning does just feel right though. The sheer magnitude of his accomplishment feels like something that is worth honoring. And, even though I know some people have problems with the film, it does not seem like a Best Picture winer that we are going to look back on in 10 years and think to ourselves, “what happened there?” In my opinion, it is a great film and will be a deserving winner.
My Best Picture Ballot:
- Past Lives
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Maestro
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