Unpredictable races, momentum-swinging scandals, and aggressive campaigns have been the defining features of the 2025 awards season. After a couple of ceremonies where the bigger categories seemed locked up months in advance, the intrigue and volatility of the lead-up to this year’s Oscars has been a bit of a welcome departure, even if the discourse has reached nauseating levels more than a few times. While I feel less certain in my predictions than ever before, there is something inherently enjoyable about heading into a show that doesn’t feel fully predetermined.
Coming on the heels of a strange and — what some considered to be — underwhelming movie year impacted by the Hollywood strikes of 2023, the 97th Academy Awards are facing a bit of an uphill battle. During a time when people love to dissect the Oscars’ waining influence and declining ratings, this year’s ceremony doesn’t have cultural phenomenons like Barbie or Oppenheimer to draw viewers like last year’s did. There will be no culminating, crowning moment for a grand master of cinema like there was for Christopher Nolan. What we have instead is a handful of competitive races featuring some very good films, but ones that may never leave the indelible mark on cinema history that some hope, expect, or require from an Oscar winner. Regardless of which film’s name is called at the end of the night, it’s fair to wonder how positive the reaction will be. It’s not hard to imagine the same tired debates about low ratings being reignited, with more casual movie fans and awards show observers feeling disinterested due to a lack of familiarity with the winners. Even for the diehard Oscar viewers and cinephiles, there may be a lack of enthusiasm if a liked-but-not-loved film ends up triumphing at the end of a long, chaotic awards season that forced us to spend so much time focusing on less than worthwhile movies like Emilia Pérez.
For the true sickos like myself — who can’t quit this ridiculous awards show no matter how many times it lets me down or angers me — there will always be a knowingly foolish excitement to tune in. As always, I’m hoping for two things: an entertaining telecast and for all my predictions to be proven correct. With a definite lack of confidence in a few of my chose winners, I’m really relying on Conan O’Brien to make at least one of my hopes come true.
Without further ado, here are my predictions and picks for the 2025 Oscars.
Achievement In Sound:
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
My Prediction: Dune: Part Two. My Pick: Dune: Part Two.
While Dune: Part Two won’t be able to match the Oscar wins of its predecessor due to only receiving half the number of nominations, it should pick up a couple wins in below-the-line categories such as this one. The only other film that is really competing here is A Complete Unknown, but I would be pretty surprised to see it triumph over Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic.
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling:
- A Different Man
- Emilia Pérez
- Nosferatu
- The Substance
- Wicked
My Prediction: The Substance. My Pick: The Substance.
This category being a showdown between The Substance and Wicked reminds me of the several races in which Barbie and Poor Things felt like the two favorites at last year’s ceremony. While Wicked should find wins in a couple other categories, Makeup & Hairstyling will most likely rightfully go to Coralie Fargeat’s body horror phenomenon.
Achievement in Costume Design:
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
My Prediction: Wicked. My Pick: Nosferatu.
Wicked winning for costume design is one of the bigger locks of the night. It’s hard to imagine any other film taking home the win here. While Wicked certainly wouldn’t be an undeserving winner, I personally preferred the costume work in Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu.
Achievement in Cinematography:
- Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
- Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
- Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
- Ed Lachman, Maria
- Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
My Prediction: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist. My Pick: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist.
If anybody has an outside chance to pull off an upset here, it is four time nominee Ed Lachman. While there seems to be great admiration for the work he did on Pablo Larraín’s Maria, this would be an incredibly unlikely win, as Lol Crawley is the pretty heavy favorite here. If things break The Brutalist‘s way on Sunday, this could be the first of several wins the film picks up.
Achievement in Production Design:
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
My Prediction: Wicked. My Pick: The Brutalist.
While Wicked is certainly the favorite here, an upset wouldn’t be that unlikely. The Brutalist seems like the most likely candidate to pull off a surprise win, due to many appreciating what its team was able to accomplish on a fairly modest budget. Nosferatu also shouldn’t be completely counted out, given the below-the-line Academy admiration it clearly has a result of its four nominations. Dune: Part Two may even have a chance at competing. Ultimately, I’m sticking with the favorite and predicting Wicked, even though I personally would vote for The Brutalist.
Achievement in Film Editing:
- Sean Baker, Anora
- David Jancso, The Brutalist
- Nick Emerson, Conclave
- Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez
- Myron Kerstein, Wicked
My Prediction: Nick Emerson, Conclave. My Pick: Sean Baker, Anora.
This will most likely be the first award of the night that has the potential to signify where some of the bigger races are headed. If Sean Baker wins here, not only would he be a step closer to making history as the first person to ever win for Oscars in one night, an Anora Best Picture win would seem all but wrapped up. If David Jancso pulls off an upset, that could mean The Brutalist is competing in Best Picture more than most of us think. Ultimately, the most likely scenario is Nick Emerson is awarded and the Conclave vs Anora race for the night’s top prize remains on track.
Achievement in Visual Effects:
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Wicked
My Prediction: Dune: Part Two. My Pick: Dune: Part Two.
Since Best Picture nominees historically have an advantage in this category, it would be a fairly big shock to see anything other than Dune: Part Two win here. If something else were to triumph, it would most likely be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Since none of the modern Planet of the Apes films have ever won here, there could be a push within the Academy to reward the latest entry. Personally, I’m not bold enough to predict the upset though.
Best Original Song:
- “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
- “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
- “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
- “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
- “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late
My Prediction: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez. My Pick: “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing.
An especially underwhelming category this year, Emilia Perez‘s scandals shouldn’t affect the chances of “El Mal” too much here. If anything were to take its spot, it would most likely be “The Journey,” which of course comes from 15-time nominee and 0-time winner, Diane Warren. It’s tempting to think this is the moment Warren finally breaks her streak, but I still think “El Mal” ultimately takes home the trophy.
Best Original Score:
- Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
- Volker Bertelmann, Conclave
- Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez
- John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked
- Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot
My Prediction: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist. My Pick: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist.
Unless enough Academy voters mistakenly think they’re voting for the songs of Wicked here, rather than the score, I don’t see how anyone else other than Daniel Blumberg wins in this category. The nominee running in second place is probably Volker Bertelmann, and while him winning doesn’t seem completely outrageous, it’s tough to predict someone other than Blumberg.
Best Animated Feature Film:
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
My Prediction: The Wild Robot. My Pick: Flow.
A tough film race if there ever was one, Best Animated Feature is a showdown between Flow and The Wild Robot, and once of the most difficult categories to predict. Similar to last year’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron matchup, this is a clash between a traditional animated blockbuster from a major studio and a lesser-known international success story. Unlike last year, though, I think the big Hollywood offering is going to take home the win. As a fan of both movies, I slightly prefer Flow, but I wouldn’t be upset with either film winning.
Best International Feature Film:
- I’m Still Here
- The Girl With the Needle
- Emilia Pérez
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig
- Flow
My Prediction: I’m Still Here. My Pick: I’m Still Here.
Unlike in Best Original Song, I’m predicting that the scandals will have an impact here and the film that garnered the most total nominations which was once considered to be a lock in this category, Emilia Pérez, will lose. While in recent years, this category has been fairly easy to predict because it included an entry that also found its way to being a Best Picture nominee, this year both I’m Still Here and Emilia Pérez are competing for the Oscars’ top prize. Despite it becoming sort-of consensus opinion at this point, it will still be somewhat surprising if Emilia Pérez actually does lose here, signifying just how far its fallen in such a short period of time. I’m not fully counting it out, but if I had to bet, I’d go with I’m Still Here, a film I find to be far superior by the way.
Best Documentary Feature Film:
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat
- Sugarcane
My Prediction: No Other Land. My Pick: No Other Land.
Similar to Best Animated Feature, this is one of the most difficult categories to predict. It is a two film race between No Other Land and Porcelain War. Two films telling touching stories centered around serious and violent subject matters. Despite many thinking that the Academy will shy away from awarding No Other Land, a film about Palestinians in the West Bank resisting Israeli efforts to force them out of their homes, after Jonathan Glazer’s acceptance speech caused debate and some controversy last year, I’m personally predicting a win.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
- Peter Straughan, Conclave
- Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, Nicolas Livecchi, Emilia Pérez
- RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
- Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing
My Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave. My Pick: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys.
As probably the biggest lock of the night, nothing really has a chance here other than Conclave. While I enjoyed the film and Peter Straughan’s tense screenplay, I found the work done by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes to be a much greater feat of adaptation.
Best Original Screenplay:
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
- Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
- Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, September 5
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
My Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora. My Pick: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain.
As the presumptive Best Picture favorite, it feels safe to predict Anora and Sean Baker winning here. While three of the film’s nominated here had places on my top ten films of 2024 list, the screenplay I personally have the most admiration for is A Real Pain‘s. If there were to be an upset here, it probably would be Jesse Eisenberg winning, with Coralie Fargeat having a slightly smaller chance. Ultimately, if everything goes as expected, though, this will be the true start of Anora‘s big night.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
My Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. My Pick: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist.
Of the four acting categories, Best Supporting Actor has been the most locked up since the start of awards season. This award is Kieran Culkin’s to lose and has been for months. While I seemingly enjoy his performance a lot more than the many critics he’s had throughout his dominant awards run, this does seem like a strange case of everyone deciding on a winner months ago, and then never taking time to reevaluate if that was the right choice. Personally, I would rank Culkin’s performance as probably my third or fourth favorite in this category. As I was a fan of all the nominated performances though, I won’t be too upset to see him win.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
My Prediction: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez. My Pick: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown.
I could come to regret this, but I’m sticking with season-long favorite in this category. As a widely respected and beloved figure in her own right, I don’t expect Zoe Saldaña’s chances here to be greatly affected by the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal. While I thought she was by far the best part of Emilia Pérez, I would personally rather see Monica Barbaro, Ariana Grande, or Felicity Jones win here. But, as an honor for an actress who spent years in the industry giving great performances and contributing to some of the biggest films of the era, I won’t have much of a problem with Saldaña winning on Sunday night.
Best Actor:
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
My Prediction: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. My Pick: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing.
Despite Timothée Chalamet’s surprise win at the SAG awards, I’m anticipating an Adrien Brody win here. As the two favorites in this category for the entirety of awards season, their race has been one of the most interesting to watch. Unfortunately for Chalamet, despite an incredibly memorable and well-run campaign, the Academy just really doesn’t like to award young stars in this category. Ironically, that’s leading the way for the man who holds the record as the youngest ever winner, Brody, to triumph. Since I’m appreciative for Chalamet’s work in an era when young movie stars seem to becoming extinct, I’ll be slightly rooting for him on Sunday night. Personally, the performance that moved me the most this year was Colman Domingo’s in Sing Sing, but unfortunately he isn’t much of a contender here.
Best Actress:
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Demi Moore, The Substance
- Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
My Prediction: Demi Moore, The Substance. My Pick: Mikey Madison, Anora.
Similar to Best Actor, this is another category featuring a race between an established Hollywood vet and an emerging young star. This time, it’s Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. While, unlike Best Actor, the Academy historically does have a tendency to award an ingénue here, I’m sticking with Moore as my prediction. The comeback narrative around her campaign has been built to perfection, and I believe voters are going to feel compelled to reward her. As a fan of her work in The Substance, I won’t have any issue with her win, even if I did slightly prefer Madison’s performance.
Best Director:
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
My Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora. My Pick: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist.
It’s probably been five years since we’ve seen a Best Director race that has been as close as this one. Sean Baker and Brady Corbet are the two front-runners here, and have been going back and forth with wins throughout the entirety of awards season. In potentially the prediction I feel the least confident in, I’m going with the favorite, Baker, here. I was compelled to choose Corbet for the sole reason that a Best Picture/Best Director split just feels right in a year that’s been so chaotic and unpredictable. But, ultimately, a Baker win feels like the right choice as there seems to be no film that the Academy has greater admiration for than Anora. Personally, as both of these films landed in my top five of the year, I won’t be disappointed either way.
Best Picture:
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
My Prediction: Anora. My Pick: The Brutalist.
At times, Emilia Pérez seemed like the favorite. In other moments, The Brutalist felt like a front-runner. Even films like Wicked and A Complete Unknown found momentum throughout the season. At the end of the day, it’s a race between the two least divisive and probably most generally liked films among the nominees, Anora and Conclave. With both film’s potentially benefitting from the Academy’s preferential ballot system, I’m still inclined to give the edge to Sean Baker’s Anora. The film has been tapped as a Best Picture favorite since it won the Palme d’Or last May, and I expect it to finish that journey on Sunday night. Does it look like the traditional Best Picture winner? No, but to me that argument went out the window forever the second that Everything Everywhere All At Once won two years ago. Even though The Brutalist was my favorite film of the year, and I even enjoyed Dune: Part Two more than Anora, I won’t have any problem with Baker’s film winning. While it does have its handful of critics, it feels like a deserving Best Picture winner, one that film fans should be able to rally around after a pretty weird movie year.
My Best Picture Ballot:
- The Brutalist
- Dune: Part Two
- Anora
- Nickel Boys
- I’m Still Here
- Conclave
- A Complete Unknown
- The Substance
- Wicked
- Emilia Pérez
Not A Real Person Yet 