If there was any doubt that award season needed to be shorter, the lead-up to this year’s Oscars put it to rest. Throughout these last few months, we’ve seen it all: narrative-shifting speeches, controversies about cat ownership, and debates about the artistic value of opera and ballet. While the discourse has been unbearable at times, the one positive byproduct of all this silliness is that we are approaching our least predictable and potentially most surprising Academy Awards in recent memory.
Unlike recent ceremonies, many of the big categories at this year’s show feel completely up in the air. Despite solidifying one of the most impressive award season résumés of all time by winning the top prize at almost every single major precursor, One Battle After Another doesn’t feel like a lock for Best Picture, with the vibes around Sinners peaking at the right time. Moreover, three of the four acting categories appear as if they could realistically go a handful of different directions. Michael B. Jordan gained serious momentum after his surprise win at the Actor Awards, Timothée Chalamet’s chances were affected by one of the most ridiculous internet outrage moments of the decade, Delroy Lindo is gaining steam as a potential surprise victor in Supporting Actor, and genuinely any of the five nominees could hear their name called in Best Supporting Actress.
For both obsessed sickos like myself and casual watchers alike, all this uncertainty makes this year’s Oscars far more interesting than anything we’ve seen probably since the 92nd awards, which are remembered for Parasite‘s big wins. Of course, all this unpredictability culminates in the One Battle After Another vs. Sinners showdown. These are the two films likely to walk away with the most awards, and the two that are in direct competition for Best Picture. While the internet has spent many hours pitting them against each other, the extra enjoyable part about this year’s show is that these are both worthy contenders and films deserving of this moment. Whichever ends up winning, I personally will be happy that a film destined to go down in cinematic history was given the respect it deserved.
Now, without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2026 Oscars.
Best Sound:
- F1
- Frankenstein
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Sirāt
My Prediction: F1. My Pick: Sinners.
Well, if the surprise Best Picture nominee, F1, has a chance to walk away with any award on Sunday, this is certainly it. Given the massive scale of the race scenes in Joseph Kosinski’s film, it definitely wouldn’t be an undeserving winner. With that being said, Sinners would be my personal choice because I feel the sound that carries both the music and the action sequences in Ryan Coogler’s film was more of an achievement. It probably has the second-best odds here, so it is absolutely in contention.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Frankenstein
- Kokuho
- Sinners
- The Smashing Machine
- The Ugly Stepsister
My Prediction: Frankenstein. My Pick: Frankenstein.
Guillermo del Toro’s unique take on the classic monster tale is both the most likely and most deserving winner in this category. It is hard to imagine any other nominee playing the role of spoiler here, and I think this will be the first of a few below-the-line victories for del Toro’s film.
Best Costume Design:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
My Prediction: Frankenstein. My Pick: Sinners.
Once again, Frankenstein feels like a lock here. The Academy has a deep appreciation for del Toro and his films, and the creation and look of the monster portrayed by Jacob Elordi is unquestionably this movie’s strongest quality. I don’t think it deserves the win over Ruth Carter’s work in Sinners, but that film will certainly have its moments later in the ceremony.
Best Cinematography:
- Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
- Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
- Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another
- Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
- Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
My Prediction: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another. My Pick: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners.
This category is the first of many One Battle After Another v. Sinners clashes that will take place on Sunday night. This round should go to OBAA, with Michael Bauman being the favorite to win this award. If Autumn Durald Arkapaw pulls off the upset, she will become the first woman to triumph in this category. And her victory could be an early signal that a big night lies ahead for Sinners.
Best Production Design:
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Frankenstein
My Prediction: Frankenstein. My Pick: Marty Supreme.
Given the inevitable omnipresence that One Battle After Another and Sinners will have during Sunday’s telecast, it’s a bit funny that Frankenstein, one of the more divisive entries in del Toro’s filmography, is essentially a lock in three different categories. It is probably more vulnerable here than in Costume Design or Makeup & Hairstyling, but it would still be a slight shock to see any other film take this category—despite the fact that the legendary Jack Fisk absolutely should be the winner here for his unbelievable work on Marty Supreme. At 80 years old, this would be a great time to award him his first Oscar.
Best Editing:
- Stephen Mirrione, F1
- Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
- Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
- Michael P. Shawver, Sinners
My Prediction: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another. My Pick: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another.
Given the fact that One Battle After Another is a 162-minute movie that feels like it’s about an hour and 40 minutes, I really don’t see how any other film could walk away with this award on Sunday. Much like cinematography, though, if Sinners wins here, that could be a sign early on in the telecast that Coogler’s film may have even more of a chance in some of the bigger categories than people think. Personally, I think Sinners’ momentum will begin gaining steam elsewhere.
Best Visual Effects:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- F1
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- The Lost Bus
- Sinners
My Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash. My Pick: Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Though Best Picture nominees historically have an advantage in this category, I don’t see this being one of Sinners‘ wins on Sunday. Most likely, this trophy is going to James Cameron’s third film in the Avatar franchise, Avatar: Fire and Ash. It’s hard to imagine any other scenario taking place.
Best Casting:
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sinners
My Prediction: Sinners. My Pick: The Secret Agent.
The inaugural Best Casting award will most likely go to Sinners and be one of the film’s first big wins of the night. Personally, I’d like to see The Secret Agent or One Battle After Another win for their discoveries of non-professional actors, or even Marty Supreme for the creativity displayed in their casting, highlighted by the inclusion of people like Kevin O’Leary and Abel Ferrara. But for the first crop of nominees in this category’s history, the Academy actually kind of knocked it out of the park, so I won’t be upset seeing Sinners or any other film nab the win here.
Best Original Song:
- “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless
- “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
- “I Lied to You,” Sinners
- “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!
- “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams
My Prediction: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters. My Pick: “I Lied to You,” Sinners.
Powered by its chart-topping success, Golden winning is one of the biggest locks of the night. If anything else has a chance, it is “I Lied to You” from Sinners, but I think this category will be another instance of Sinners finishing second before its wins really start rolling in. I’d also like to take this time to commend the Academy for having those two songs be the only ones to get a live performance on Sunday night, since they are the only ones in this category that people actually care about.
Best Original Score:
- Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia
- Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein
- Max Richter, Hamnet
- Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another
- Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
My Prediction: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners. My Pick: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners.
This is where the Sinners wave will really begin. Intrinsically tied to the movies’s narrative, this simply would not have been the same film without Ludwig Göransson’s powerful, history-spanning score. If anyone else has an outside chance here, it would be Jonny Greenwood, but you can basically start engraving Göransson’s name now.
Best Animated Feature Film:
- Arco
- Elio
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Zootopia 2
My Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters. My Pick: KPop Demon Hunters.
As evidenced by these nominees, 2025 wasn’t exactly a banner year for animation. The cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters was undoubtedly the most successful film of the bunch, and should walk away with the award on Sunday night. Its only real competitor is Zootopia 2, which is running in a distant second place.
Best International Feature Film:
- The Secret Agent
- It Was Just an Accident
- Sentimental Value
- Sirāt
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
My Prediction: Sentimental Value. My Pick: Sentimental Value.
Sometimes, this category is made easy to predict by one of the nominees also appearing in Best Picture. This year, however, both Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent are competing for the night’s top prize. Once considered a Best Picture hopeful, Jafar Panâhi’s It Was Just an Accident is also a contender in this category. Ultimately, the nine nominations secured by Sentimental Value are enough for me to believe that the Academy will reward it here. Given that Joachim Trier’s film and It Was Just an Accident both landed on my top ten films of 2025 list, it wasn’t easy selecting my pick in this category. At the end of the day, I just prefer Sentimental Value a little bit more. I won’t be upset by any of these nominees winning, though, as this is one of the better lineups this category has seen in recent memory.
Best Documentary Feature Film:
- The Alabama Solution
- Come See Me in the Good Light
- Cutting Through Rocks
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin
- The Perfect Neighbor
My Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor. My Pick: The Alabama Solution.
As always, the documentary nominees this year are all primarily issues-oriented journalistic pieces. While some quarrel with these types of movies dominating this category, because it feels somewhat limiting to what the documentary form can be and do, it doesn’t seem like the Academy is interested in mixing things up any time soon. For me, the best and most affecting film of this bunch is The Alabama Solution, which chronicles the haunting and unjust conditions of the state’s prison system. But the most likely winner is Geeta Gandbhir’s telling of a neighborhood shooting, mostly through the use of police bodycam footage, The Perfect Neighbor. If any film plays spoiler here, it will likely be Mr. Nobody Against Putin, mostly due to the Academy’s growing international membership.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- Will Tracy, Bugonia
- Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
- Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another. My Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.
This category will not only be the first time Paul Thomas Anderson steps on stage during Sunday’s telecast, it will also be the first time in his career he ever gets up on the Oscars’ stage. The acclaimed writer/director has yet to receive an Oscar in his legendary career, but that will assuredly be rectified here. The only question will be whether or not he returns to the stage later in the night.
Best Original Screenplay:
- Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
- Jafar Panâhi & Nader Saïvar & Shadmehr Rastin & Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident
- Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
My Prediction: Ryan Coogler, Sinners. My Pick: Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value.
At a ceremony defined by the Sinners vs. One Battle After Another showdown, the screenplay categories offer a nice opportunity for each film, and their respective auteurs, to have their moments before the drama of Best Director and Best Picture takes place. Personally, my choice in this category would be Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, but I, like many others, will still be elated to hear Coogler’s name called. He is somebody deserving of Academy recognition, and it will be a great moment for film fans everywhere when he ultimately receives it.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo, Sinners
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
My Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another. My Pick: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another.
We’ve finally reached the first of the hard-to-predict acting categories that, as someone who really likes being right, have been causing me a great deal of stress. This ultimately feels like a race between Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård, and Delroy Lindo. Penn’s win at the BAFTAs signifies that he may have favor with the international voters in the Academy, but Skarsgård is a beloved veteran of the industry with zero Oscars to his name, while Penn already has two and would be joining an exclusive club with a win here. Lindo is running in third place, but much like Skarsgård, is a legend that’s more than deserving of an “It’s Time” award. His win would perhaps be the most telling outcome, as it would likely mean that Sinners has the strength to pull off the historic upset in Best Picture. While I don’t feel overly confident in my Penn prediction, it feels like the safest choice at the moment, which could come back to bite me. Of course, if I were in charge of things, Benicio del Toro would win this award in a landslide.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
My Prediction: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners. My Pick: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value.
Here we have another three person race. This time it’s between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Teyana Taylor, with Elle Fanning and my choice Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas running in a distant fourth and fifth place. The smart prediction would be Madigan, who has remained the odds-on favorite after triumphing in this category at the Actor Awards. I can’t shake the feeling that something unexpected is going to happen here, though. I could easily see Taylor or Mosaku winning, with Mosaku having the better chance due to her BAFTAs victory. Another thing that is making me wary of predicting Madigan is Demi Moore’s Best Actress loss last year, which I believe is proof that the Academy isn’t quite ready to fully embrace a certain brand of horror-focused genre performance. Much like Best Actor, though, I’d be lying if I said I feel like I have a good grasp on this category.
Best Actor:
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
My Prediction: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. My Pick: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon.
When Marty Supreme premiered, conventional wisdom was this was Chalamet’s Oscar to lose. And in the months following, he may have done just that. Due to an aversion some have to aspects of his public persona and the unlikability of his character in Marty Supreme, Chalamet now seems to be running in second place here to Michael B. Jordan, who gained major momentum after a memorable and endearing victory speech at the Actor Awards. Though I’m predicting him as my winner, I’m doing it with a great amount of trepidation. Not only do I think Chalamet still has a ton of support behind him, I could realistically see a Hawke, Moura, or DiCaprio surprise coming. As the younger stars in this category, who appeared in two of the noisier films of the year, there’s a world where Chalamet and Jordan sort of split the vote, leading the way for one of the elder statesman to make a move. It should be noted that the main reason I am having so much trouble predicting this category is because these are genuinely five tremendous performances, and I think the Academy knows that. With so much love being spread out among all the nominees, something unexpected can definitely happen. Personally, I can’t wait to see what does. Even though I would probably rank Jordan’s performance as the fifth best here, I still think he’d be a worthy winner and I’ll ultimately be happy with any outcome.
Best Actress:
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
My Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet. My Pick: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
Thank god Jessie Buckley is here to make me feel confident in at least one of my acting predictions. This award has been hers for the entirety of the season, and nothing, not even the scathing reviews and dismal box office performance of The Bride!, ever interrupted her momentum. While she certainly gives an Oscar worthy performance in the uneven Hamnet, I am a greater fan of Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Unfortunately, though, her and the rest of the nominees in this category were only ever playing for second place.
Best Director:
- Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another. My Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.
This category marks Paul Thomas Anderson’s fourth Best Director nomination. He has yet to win. That will most likely change on Sunday night, with him being the presumptive favorite here for the entirety of award season. In fact, PTA winning here feels much more like a lock than One Battle After Another winning in Best Picture does at this point. By no means should Coogler be completely discounted. The possibility of him making history here by becoming the first Black director to ever take home this prize is certainly in play, but it would be a pretty big surprise. In my opinion, PTA gets his moment here, gives his speech, and then the suspense really builds as we wait to see which of these magnificent films receives the final trophy of the night.
Best Picture:
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
My Prediction: One Battle After Another. My Pick: One Battle After Another.
It’s really tempting to predict Sinners here. This is, without a doubt, the closest Best Picture race we have seen in years. And in the week or two leading up to the ceremony, the vibes have really seemed to shift towards Coogler’s film. But, at the end of the day, I have to take the unprecedented amount of love One Battle has recieved throughout the entirety of award season into account. It has recieved the top prize at the PGA awards, DGA awards, WGA awards, ACE (American Cinema Editors) awards, ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) awards, BAFTAs, Critics Choice awards, Golden Globes, Los Angeles Film Critics awards, New York Film Critics Circle awards, and National Society of Film Critics awards. That is practically unheard of. The only major award it didn’t win is Best Ensemble Cast at the Actor Awards, which went to Sinners and helped kickstart its recent surge. I just don’t think that’s going to be enough to give Sinners the edge, though. I also think Sinners may not play well with certain international Academy members and its horror elements could turn some voters away. With all that being said, a Sinners win won’t surprise me in the least, nor will it dissapoint me. Despite how nauseating this season’s discourse has gotten, we should all feel lucky that these two films are the ones leading the race. They are both tremendous works of art that will make for fitting representatives of the historically great year in film that just passed. It’s a shame they’ve been pitted against each other to such harsh degrees by some people on the internet looking to rage bait or get off hot takes. I look forward to seeing either one be celebrated in the way it deserves on Sunday night.
My Best Picture Ballot:
- One Battle After Another
- Sentimental Value
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
- The Secret Agent
- Train Dreams
- Bugonia
- F1
- Hamnet
- Frankenstein
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