Predicting the Nominees for the 2022 Oscars

The nominees for the 94th Academy Awards will be revealed tomorrow. After a poorly received and scarcely watch ceremony last year, I’m very interested to see what the voters decided to nominate this year. Getting inside the mind of an Academy voter is a difficult and terrifying task, so I have no doubt I’ll be wrong all over the place with my predictions. But, I did my best to study awards strategists, studio campaigns, and the results of other awards ceremonies to come up with these predictions.

I’ll be sharing my predictions for 20 of the 23 categories, excluding only the short film categories. Much like the ceremony itself, I’ll start with some of the smaller categories and work my way up to the more major ones.

Lastly, I cannot stress enough that these are my predictions and definitely not my personal preferences.

(Please note that all nominees are listed only in alphabetical order)

BEST SOUND:

• Belfast
• Dune
• No Time to Die
• tick, tick… Boom!
• West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: Spider-Man: No Way Home and The Power of the Dog are the two films I could definitely see sneaking in here. If one of them were to get nominated, I think they would most likely replace Belfast. Other than that, A Quiet Place Part II has an outside shot at getting nominated here but it doesn’t seem very likely.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

• Dune
• The Matrix Resurrections
• No Time to Die
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• Spider-Man: No Way Home

What’s In The Mix: Godzilla vs. Kong has a real chance of getting nominated here. While I would very much love to be able to call that film an Oscar nominated movie, I think No Time to Die edges it out for the fifth spot here. The only other film that even has a chance in this category is Ghostbusters: Afterlife.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

• Cruella
• Dune
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• House of Gucci
• West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: The Suicide Squad actually has a very good chance of replacing one of my predicted films. If it were to get nominated, I think West Side Story is the film that would fall out of the nominees. Nightmare Alley is also a dark horse to get nominated in this category.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

• Cruella
• Dune
• House of Gucci
• Nightmare Alley
• West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: Seemingly, there are four films fighting for the last two spots in this category. While Cruella, Dune, and Nightmare Alley are virtual locks—any combination of House of Gucci, West Side Story, Cyrano, and The French Dispatch could be the final two nominees. Even Licorice Pizza has a slim chance of grabbing one of those spots as well.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

• Dune
• The French Dispatch
• Nightmare Alley
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: Here’s a situation where there are four locks (Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story) and then multiple films competing for the fifth spot. Ultimately, I decided to go with The Tragedy of Macbeth over films like Cyrano, Belfast, and Spencer. Also, although it has essentially no chance of being nominated here, I want to give a shoutout to The Green Knight. I would have loved to seen that film get more of a push in this category and some of the other below-the-line categories, as I think it is completely deserving.

BEST FILM EDITING:

• Úna Ní Dhonghaíle – Belfast
• Joe Walker – Dune
• Andy Jurgensen – Licorice Pizza
• Tom Cross & Elliot Graham – No Time to Die
• Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog

What’s In The Mix: There are a lot of films competing in this category. I could definitely see West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, or Don’t Look Up earning a nomination here. Some have predicted Summer of Soul as a dark horse pick in this category, but I don’t see the Academy voters doing that. The French Dispatch is the one film that I personally would like to see have a greater chance in this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

• Haris Zambarloukos – Belfast
• Greig Fraser – Dune
• Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
• Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Janusz Kamiński – West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: I would not be shocked if Dan Laustsen is nominated here for his work on Nightmare Alley. Other than that though, I feel pretty confident in my five choices. Unfortunately, Robbie Ryan doesn’t seem to have a chance at being recognized here for his work on C’mon C’mon, which is a shame because that is a gorgeous looking film.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

• Nicholas Britell – Don’t Look Up
• Hans Zimmer – Dune 
• Germaine Franco – Encanto
• Alexandre Desplat – The French Dispatch
• Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog

What’s In The Mix: This feels like a pretty straightforward category. I don’t see any major surprises occurring here. The one thing I could see happening that would be different from my predictions is Jonny Greenwood being a double nominee for his work on The Power of the Dog and Spencer. If that were to happen, I think Germaine Franco would be the nominee to suffer from it. Also, I think it’s important to note that I’ve predicted eight categories so far and Dune has been present in each one. I expect that film to do very well tomorrow morning.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

• “So May We Start” – Annette
• “Just Look Up” – Don’t Look Up
• “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
• “Be Alive” – King Richard
• “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die

What’s In The Mix: Often times there is a heavy front runner in this category but I don’t think that is the case this year. Still, “No Time to Die,” “Just Look Up,” and “Dos Oruguitas” seem to be locks to at least get nominated here. If “Be Alive” and “So May We Start” don’t end up getting nominated, it will be because some combination of “Here I Am Singing My Way Home” (Respect), “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days), “Beyond the Shore” (CODA), and “Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall) replaced them. Truthfully, I could easily see “Here I Am Singing My Way Home” getting nominated here over “So May We Start,” but I sort-of went with my heart over my head when making that prediction.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

• Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

What’s In The Mix: This is the category where I feel most confident in my predictions. I would be pretty surprised if these weren’t the five films announced tomorrow morning. If an upset were to occur, it would be either Sing 2 or Belle that would cause that to happen.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

• Drive My Car (Japan)
• Flee (Denmark)
• The Hand of God (Italy)
• A Hero (Iran)
• The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

What’s In The Mix: This is another category I feel fairly confident in. Admittedly, it was made much easier to predict since Spain did not submit Parallel Mothers for consideration in this category. It will be interesting to see if Flee does end up getting the nomination here because if it does, I think it’s a virtual guarantee that it will be nominated for Best International, Animated, and Documentary Feature—which would be an incredibly impressive feat.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

• Ascension
• Flee
• Procession
• The Rescue
• Summer of Soul

What’s In The Mix: Attica, The First Wave, and Simple as Water are definitely contenders here, with Attica probably having the best chance of earning a nomination. Personally, I’d love to see Todd Haynes’ The Velvet Underground be recognized here but I just don’t see it actually happening.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

• Siân Heder – CODA
• Ryûsuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car
• Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Tony Kushner – West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: There are a few potential candidates just on the outside of my predictions in this category. They are Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve for Dune, Rebecca Hall for Passing, and Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Unfortunately, I think the names amongst my predictions that are most likely to get knocked off are Ryûsuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

• Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos
• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Adam McKay & David Sirota – Don’t Look Up
• Zach Baylin – King Richard
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

What’s In The Mix: Here we have another category where I feel pretty confident in my predictions. If I had to pick the most likely surprise, I would say it would be Pedro Almodóvar being nominated for his Parallel Mothers screenplay. In terms of personal preference though, I would like to see Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch), Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon), and/or Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt (The Worst Person in the World) be recognized here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

• Jamie Dornan – Belfast
• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
• Kodi Smit-Mcphee – The Power of the Dog

What’s In The Mix: Kicking off the big six categories is a race with four locks and one open spot. That open spot will most likely either go to Jamie Dornan or Jared Leto. I chose Dornan here just because I think the Academy ultimately feels warmer towards Belfast than House of Gucci. Longer shots in this category include Jesse Plemons, Ben Affleck, and Mike Faist.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

• Caitríona Balfe – Belfast
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: Much like Best Supporting Actor, I think this is more-or-less a category with four near guarantees and one spot up for grabs. I could see either Cate Blanchett or Ruth Negga being included here. Ultimately, I feel the Academy will be partial towards Blanchett. I don’t see any of the longer shots—Judi Dench, Marlee Matlin, Ann Dowd, or Rita Moreno—being a surprise inclusion in this category.

BEST ACTOR:

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Will Smith – King Richard
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… Boom!
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

What’s In The Mix: While this category has long been considered a two man race between Cumberbatch and Smith, picking the three men who will have the opportunity to ultimately lose to one of those two was not an easy task. Amongst the final three actors I predicted, I think Garfield has the best chance of being nominated and Bardem has the worst. It’s never wise to count out Leonardo DiCaprio in this category though, and Peter Dinklage and Bradley Cooper certainly have cases to be made in their favor as well. Personally, I would love to see Simon Rex be recognized for his work in Red Rocket in this category. But unfortunately, even though he gave an Oscar-worthy performance, his actual buzz faded just about as quickly as it started.

BEST ACTRESS:

• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer

What’s In The Mix: This is widely considered the most difficult category to predict this year and it’s not hard to see why. I mean just consider the fact that a couple months ago it seemed like Kristen Stewart was a lock to win this award and now she isn’t even a favorite to get nominated. There are seven actresses that feel like they have a legitimate, true chance of being nominated. The two that I chose not to include in my predictions were Jennifer Hudson and Penélope Cruz. But that’s not even accounting for Emilia Jones and Renate Reinsve who have outside chances of being nominated here, as well as Rachel Zegler and Alana Haim who definitely deserve to at least be in the conversation. Truthfully, I have little-to-no idea what names are going to be announced tomorrow, which is why I ultimately went with my heart over my head with the Kristen Stewart inclusion in my prediction. We’ll see.

BEST DIRECTOR:

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Denis Villeneuve – Dune
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: Historically, there is usually a bit more drama in the Best Director race than there seems to be this year. Sure, I could potentially see Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Pedro Almodóvar, or even Reinaldo Marcus Green sneak in and grab a nomination here. But, the five nominees I predicted feel like pretty strong contenders. I wouldn’t be completely stunned if we hear a surprise tomorrow, but I’m definitely not predicting one.

BEST PICTURE:

• Belfast
• Being the Ricardos
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• The Power of the Dog
• tick, tick… Boom!
• West Side Story

What’s In The Mix: It’s important to note that the Academy changed their rules for this year, so they now once again have to nominate ten films in this category. Also, after looking at my predictions, I feel once again obligated to point out that these are definitely not my personal preferences. I tried very hard not to predict Being the Ricardos here, as I do not think it is deserving of being included, but I just couldn’t see the Academy choosing Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, or Drive My Car over it for some reason. Outside of the three films I just named, The Lost Daughter seems like it has the best chances of sneaking in and earning a nomination here. There are plenty of other films I could mention that I personally feel deserve to be nominated that have no chance, but that’s another blog for another time. For now, that wraps up my 2022 Oscar predictions. I can’t wait to tune in tomorrow morning to see all the ways in which I was wrong.